African oil demand will rise as fast as India's over the next decade, according to new forecasts by specialist African downstream energy specialists CITAC.

CITAC's just-published figures suggest demand for refined products in Africa will rise by 40% by 2020, equivalent to annual growth of 3%. This compares with world oil demand growth of just 1% per year, as predicted by the International Energy Agency.

African demand in 2020 is expected to average 4.3 million barrels per day, up from 3 million barrels per day in 2008. But, says CITAC, regional growth rates from this relatively low base are not expected to be uniform.

“Our energy forecasts lead us to predict 60% growth in West and Central Africa, 57% in Southern and East Africa and 22% in North Africa,” said Elitsa Georgieva, CITAC’s Consultancy Services Manager, speaking during African Refiners Association Week in Cape Town.

CITAC’s forecasts are based on detailed analysis of multiple, and often unique factors impacting oil product demand on the African continent. These include GDP and population growth, and the evolution and size of vehicle fleets, among others. The forecasts have been constructed at a detailed level by individual product, country and region.

Demand growth in North Africa is expected to be slower than in other African regions because of the rapid growth there in the use of gas for power generation and industry, and electricity in all sectors, CITAC said.

A key driver in all three regions will be the rising demand for transport fuels – gasoil (diesel) and gasoline. This will result in continuous rises in so-called “clean” products imports, because the continent’s refineries are unable to meet growing demand and are struggling to justify new investment, due to poor refining margins.

CITAC has established detailed oil product demand forecasts for each African country, by product, up to 2020. They are available through subscription to its ADD⁺ database.

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