CITAC has developed WARMI, a new daily indicator of hypothetical margin in West African refineries. The model used represents a refinery with a simple hydroskimming process or with fluid catalytic cracker, located on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, running 100,000b/d of West African crude oil. The refinery model is configured to maximise kerosene and gasoil yields, with refinery output pegged to AFRI-2 quality levels with current market import price for crude oil and a mix of local market and export pricing for products.

The refining margins are determined by comparing delivered cost of crude oil to a theoretical refinery against the ex-refinery price of the refined products. When deriving the product prices, it is assumed that 50% of the refinery's output is sold ex-refinery to satisfy the inland market, the other 50% being exported by sea to the regional market. Fuller details are available on request. Importantly, it should be noted that there are no financing or demurrage charges applied for either crude oil or products in the calculations, and efficient operation is assumed.

CITAC can expand this analysis to evaluate different West African crudes on request.

In the meantime, please contact us with any queries or observations on our model.